When to take risk.
When to get defensive.
We rank ten asset classes each week by relative strength and money flow. Those rankings guide an equally weighted portfolio toward market leaders, with changes made at the monthly review.
Follow market leadership.
A systematic way to decide when to take risk and when to get defensive.
Our Market Regime model helps you decide when to take risk and which asset classes to own. Our ETF Strategy then guides your investments within those asset classes.
Each week, we rank 10 asset classes by relative strength and money flow, adjusted for volatility. The average position is held 5 to 8 months.
The average exposure mirrors that of a balanced fund and outperforms equity benchmarks over time with less maximum drawdown than a balanced fund.
At the monthly review, the model selects its holdings and gives each an equal weight to diversify risk exposure.
ETF selection can make a meaningful difference to portfolio returns. Our ETF Research and Models help you choose what to own within each asset class in the Market Regime Model. Explore our ETF Research and Models.
The regime sets how many asset classes the portfolio may own and how defensive the mix has to be. Within that, every funded class gets the same weight. Rankings are recomputed weekly, but the portfolio itself moves at most once a month.
Favor equities. Hold three to five leading asset classes.
Balance equities with defensive assets.
Favor cash, bonds, or precious metals. The model can hold 100% cash.
Across the record equities lead about two-thirds of the time. The model favors equities when they lead and shifts toward defense when leadership weakens.
Rankings refresh weekly, but trades happen only at the monthly review, and only when leadership has actually changed. Most months the portfolio stays put.
The test is durable leadership, not the fastest signal. The average position is held 5 to 8 months, long enough to let a trend pay.
Market Regime Model vs. Benchmarks
| CAGR | Vol | Max drawdown | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Regime Portfolio | 9.43% | 9.8% | -19.6% |
| 50/50 TSX / S&P 500 | 8.44% | 11.9% | -47.6% |
| 60/40 Balanced Portfolio | 6.54% | 7.3% | -23.9% |
| S&P 500 | 8.13% | 12.7% | -54.5% |
January 2000 to August 2026 Market Regime Model Performance, every line based at $1M on the last day of December 1999. Max drawdown is the deepest peak-to-trough loss on daily closes, to 28 August 2026. Past performance does not predict future results.
Scroll the chart sideways to follow the record →
No. Rankings refresh every Friday so the picture is always current, but the portfolio only moves at the monthly review, leadership has to hold through a month-end before it is bought.
No. The dial describes what leadership is doing now, measured from prices and flows, adjusted for volatility. It reacts to evidence rather than predicting the turn.
Lean into equities while leading, pair them with defense when the reading is mixed, and hold the defensive lines while lagging.
Yes. In a lagging regime where nothing defensive is leading either, the model can go to cash.
Independent macro and equity research built for professional investors navigating regime change, market risk, and capital allocation.